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May 23rd, 2008

Brown and out?

Posted by: Stephen Addison

crewe.jpgAs much as stunned Labour MPs wander around like Corporal Jones telling each other not to panic after the dreadful result for them in Crewe, many of the newspapers believe Gordon Brown’s days are now numbered.

The Guardian, under the headline “Brown faces meltdown,” says he is facing the gravest crisis of his premiership in the run-up to the Autumn party conference. Like many other newspapers it says the decision to dress Labour activists in top hats and deride the Conservative candidate as a “toff” was a fundamental mistake, albeit one endorsed by Brown.

“Deciding who was responsible for the approach will be a central part of any Labour inquest,” the paper said.

The Daily Express says Brown is now likely to face a “stalking horse” leadership challenge in the Autumn, possibly from a former minister like Charles Clarke or Alan Milburn, with a view to getting rid of him well before the next general election.

Any attempts to unseat Brown will not be forgiven, the Daily Mirror says potential rebels have been told. The paper says Downing Street fears Blairite supporters will be giving interviews this weekend trying to undermine the leader.

Several papers believe Brown will have difficulty coming up with a raft of new policy announcemenets to rejuvenate Labour, having already unveiled many plans in last week’s draft Queen’s speech and moved to defuse the 10p income tax row.

A snap cabinet reshuffle looks unlikely for fear of appearing a panic measure, comments the Independent.

The Daily Mail says some estimates suggest 70 to 90 Labour MPs have given up on Brown altogether with another 120 wavering. But it notes that with the week-long Whitsun recess now having bugun, there is unlikely to be any immediate move to unseat him.

The Mail is among several papers to point to John Major as an example of how difficult it actually is to get rid of a sitting Prime Minister, however unpopular.

“Mr Brown’s fate will ultimately be decided by the Parliamentary Labour Party which meets on Monday week to mull over the result,” it declares.

The Sun calls the result a “Crewe cut” for Brown and says voters punished Labour for soaring household bills and uncontrolled immigration.

The Daily Telegraph likens Labour to the Titanic: “with Gordon Brown at the helm, it is heading staright towards the iceberg that is the next general election,” its political editor Andrew Porter writes, noting that Brown’s best hope — an upturn in the economy — looks increasingly unlikely.

Crewe was a protest “on an epic scale” for the Financial Times

“There will be no shortage of advice for the prime minister, much of it conflicting,” writes Philip Stephens. “He should give definition to his premiership, show purpose for his government; he should swing back onto Blairite reformist ground; or perhaps he should lurch to the left to win back the core vote. He should smile more; or perhaps he should just be himself.”

The paper finds one glimmer of hope for Labour — that those knocking on the doors in Crewe and Nantwich found little evidence of a groundswell for the Conservatives, it says. The voters were more concerned to bash Labour than embrace the Tories.

But Stephens adds: “The comparison that will haunt him this weekend, though, is with the Eastbourne by-election in the autumn of 1990. Margaret Thatcher lost the seat to the Liberal Democrats on a 20 percent swing - and within a month she was gone.”

May 14th, 2008

Brown: asset or liability? Candidate would rather not say

Posted by: Katherine Baldwin

gbrown22.jpgThe Labour Party knew Tony Blair had to go when he became an electoral liability.

Less than a year into the job, where does Gordon Brown stand in terms of this all-important marker?

Well, don’t expect any answers from Labour’s candidate in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election.

Tamsin Dunwoody refused to come up with a straight answer in when she was asked the question repeatedly by a reporter. You can see the interview in the You Tube clip below.

“Gordon Brown is our prime minister” and a number of variations on that theme was her reply.

The Conservatives, whose leader David Cameron is back on the campaign trail in Crewe and Nantwich on Thursday, are gleefully circulating the clip of her interview, complete with an awkward-looking John Denham (minister for universities and skills) standing by.

Brown has been noticeably absent from the northern constituency in the run-up to next week’s by-election, which opinion polls show his party could lose to the Tories, despite it being regarded as a safe Labour seat.

May 2nd, 2008

At a glance - election results

Posted by: Astrid Zweynert

**Full coverage of the London mayor and local elections **

The election results for England and Wales at 8:00 p.m. with all 159 councils having officially declared.

Councillors   Councils  
Party Won/lost Total Won/Lost Total
Conservative +256 3154 +12 65
Labour -331 2368 -9 18
LibDem +34 1805 1 12
Plaid Cymru +33 207 -1 0
Other 5 893 0 0
NOC - - -3 64
Councils declared out of 159 total     159  

Source: BBC

March 15th, 2008

Tories keep their powder dry for a 2010 election

Posted by: Sumeet Desai

Like Labour’s in Birmingham a fortnight ago, the overall tone of the Conservative Party Spring conference in Gateshead this weekend has been pretty low-key.

Tory strategists say they are not expecting an electionDavid Cameron until 2010 — they argue that Gordon Brown might want an 2009 contest but will be constrained by a deficit in the polls and an economy that in all likelihood will still be reeling from the global credit crunch.

So there’s been little in the way of substantive new policies this weekend.

Better to keep their powder dry until an election looks closer on the horizon.

Party leader David Cameron instead put the focus of the conference on casting the Conservatives as the party of the family.

“We’re doing very well with older people, but we need to win over the 30 to 40-somethings,” one shadow Cabinet member told me at the futuristic Sage Gateshead conference centre.

He predicted 2008 would be a year of consolidation for the Tories rather than containing any new dramatic turns.

Both main parties would have to see how the ongoing turmoil in financial markets hits the real economy.

Labour also appears to be shying away from any big ideas for now.

Chancellor Alistair Darling’s budget this week was widely derided as boring, though he would argue that stability is key at a time when the economy is being buffeted by a global storm.

The Conservatives say Darling was boring because he didn’t have any money to play with.

But they’ve not really said what they would do themselves, beyond a vague, long-term commitment to tax cuts.

With the polls volatile, both parties are now scrapping for the same centre-ground with micro-measures targeted at particular groups.

It will take some bold ideas before either can pull away and be certain of victory at the next election.

You can see what Shadow Chancellor George Osborne had to tell my colleague Tim Castle about possible tax cuts under a future Tory government here and the Northern Rock rescue here .

March 15th, 2008

George Osborne and rabbits in hats

Posted by: Tim Castle

Shadow Chancellor George Osborne talks to Tim Castle at the Conservative Spring Conference in Gateshead about the prospect for tax cuts under a future Tory government.

Click on the video below.

March 15th, 2008

Interview: George Osborne on Northern Rock

Posted by: Tim Castle

Shadow Chancellor George Osborne answers criticism that the Tories offered no credible alternative for the rescue of Northern Rock in this interview with Tim Castle at the Conservative Spring Conference at Gateshead.

Click on the video below.

March 14th, 2008

Boris sticks the boot in, gently

Posted by: Tim Castle

*For all the latest Reuters news, analysis, pictures and blogs from the campaign trail, visit our special London elections site*

The battle for London Mayor has moved 250 miles north to Gateshead, where Tory contender Boris Johnson has been sticking his rhetorical boot into the Labour incumbent.

Johnson won laughs and applause from party activists at theBoris Johnson Conservative Spring Conference as he eased his political stiletto between Ken Livingstone’s ribs.

He was merely repaying the compliment after Labour dedicated an afternoon to bashing Boris at their spring conference in Birmingham two weeks ago.

But while Labour Minister Hazel Blears called Johnson a “nasty, right-wing elitist, with odious views and criminal friends”, Boris opted for a more subtle approach.

“I know I am facing one of the wiliest and most redoubtable opponents in British politics … a man equipped as if by millennia of evolution with a prehensile tail with which to cling to office,” he told his appreciative audience.

“He has said some wise things. For instance, he said that only a ghastly dehumanised moron would get rid of the Routemaster bus, a point he then proved by getting rid of them himself.

“Just as the dinosaurs finally ceded dominion of the earth after their interminable epoch, so it is dawning on us that Ken Livingstone is visibly being transformed into “Ken Leaving-Soon” and the great Newtosaurus Rex has finally had its day.”

The mutual exchange of invective shows how the political temperature is rising ahead of the May 1 election, with the two contenders neck and neck in the polls.

The contest is already being seen as a proxy for the next general election - due by 2010 but potentially coming as soon as summer next year.

Johnson says it would be “momentous” if Labour loses the London Mayoral race.

You can see Johnson telling me why he is standing for Mayor here, and explaining why Boring Boris and Old Boris are two sides of the same coin here.

March 14th, 2008

Will it be Boring Boris if Johnson becomes London Mayor?

Posted by: Tim Castle

johnson.jpgBoris Johnson talks to Tim Castle at the Conservative Spring Conference in Gateshead.

The Tory candidate for London Mayor says he will give it 100 percent should he become mayor and focus on making the capital safer because “it’s central to making a wonderful city yet more wonderful.”

Click on the video below.