Unstructured Finance

By Matthew Goldstein and Jennifer Ablan

Big money managers do not always agree–that’s what makes a market–but if there was one consensus coming out of our just concluded Reuters Investment Outlook Summit, it’s that next year will probably be another bang up one for the bond market.

Now the credit markets will have a tough time repeating the kind of numbers put up this year, especially with the Federal Reserve doing its darndest to push down borrowing costs and yields by buying  mortgage backed securities and even Treasuries. Speaker after speaker who joined us in New York said “junk” bonds, corporate debt, mortgage- and commercial-backed securities and even Treasuries “on a trading basis”  should do well for no other reason than credit markets still aren’t showing anything close to the kind of froth we saw in the run-up to the financial crisis. The sense is that it may be another 2 or 3 years before we see excesses build up in the system again.

Oh sure, there are exceptions such as, bonds being sold by companies to pay special dividends to their private equity backers (several speakers said to avoid these). Other guests also are wary of the junk bond market, noting with yields coming down the risk to reward premium isn’t looking as good as it did earlier this year. And at least one speaker said he would avoid mortgage REITS because there’s too much leverage baked into their holdings.

For the most part, nearly all of our guests said corporate credits including the junk bond market will turn in solid—not spectacular—performance in 2013, noting with yields coming down the risk-to-reward premium isn’t providing the kind of juice as it did earlier this year to produce returns.

As for stocks, the verdict is like every year–cautiously optimistic. Some say the stock market will do OK next year as the politicos in D.C. can get their act together and really deal with taxes and budget cuts (a big if). Other says if the economy continues to revive, stocks should post decent single-digit returns.

By Matthew Goldstein and Jennifer Ablan

About a year ago, Nobel Prize-winning liberal economist Joseph Stiglitz made a surprise appearance at the Occupy Wall Street camp site in Zuccotti Park, giving a speech to rally the protestors and support their causes of bringing attention to the economic divide between the 1 percent and everyone else in the U.S.

Today, the protestors in lower Manhattan have all but disappeared with the attention on Occupy Wall Street gone along with it.

Stiglitz said the effort wasn’t for nothing, however.

“I think Occupy Wall Street served a function in that it brought to the attention of the American public two things…the distortion of our economy and inequality,” Stiglitz told Reuters TV this week in a wide ranging interview (led by Jenn) at Columbia University, where his a professor. Stiglitz said the protests helped serve notice that while a small group of Americans are doing far better than the other 99 percent, “we all have to get together” for the country to truly prosper.

Jenn Ablan likes to tell me that people are always writing about PIMCO and Bill Gross, the long reigning “king of bonds.” And when you think of it there’s a lot of truth to that assertion.

Gross’ mammoth $263 billion Total Return Fund gets endless coverage because–by its very size–it really is the bond market. It’s one reason why so much ink is spilled whenever the Total Return Fund has a month where investors pull more money out of the fund than put in.  And it’s why there’s so much analysis of what Gross & Co. are doing with Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities–and whether they are using lots of leverage and derivatives to boost exposures.

Then again, it’s hard to ignore Gross & Co. since the bond king and his co-partner and heir apparent, Mohamed El-Erian are on TV virtually everyday offering their views on just about anything doing with the economy.

Jenn Ablan and I have done a lot reporting on Mortgage Resolution Partners’ plan to get county governments and cities to use eminent domain to seize and restructure underwater mortgages. As we’ve reported, it’s an intriguing solution to the seemingly intractable problem of too much mortgage debt holding back the U.S. economy. But it’s also a controversial one that threatens to rewrite basic contractual rights and the whole notion of how we view mortgages in this country.

And then there’s the issue of just who are are the financiers behind Mortgage Resolution Partners and whether they’ve gone about selling their plan in the right way.

The debate over using eminent domain has sparked a lively debate on editorial pages, on blogs and in other media, and that debate is likely to continue now that Suffolk County, NY says it is looking at eminent domain just like San Bernardino County, Calif.  So here’s a bit of sampler of some of the differing views and coverage on this important topic:

By Matthew Goldstein

In some ways, the story of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is one of those quirky only in Vermont business stories, with a founder who made a small fortune in the 1970s selling rolling papers to potheads and a board member who helped invent the sports bra. Yet at the same time, Green Mountain is very much a Wall Street saga, with all the requisite highs and lows for its stock and questions about where the fast-growing company is going.

And right now, with shares of Green Mountain trading around $20–down sharply from the all-time high of $115 reached last September–it’s the Wall Street story that matters most.

Critics of the company question whether Green Mountain can maintain a stranglehold on the market for single-cup coffee products with other competitors joining the fray and some patents expiring. And, of course, there’s questions about that ongoing SEC investigation into the company’s accounting practices and how it recognizes revenues.

The heat is on all across the U.S. as we gear up for the 4th of July. And in Europe, the heat over the euro zone financial crisis seems to have abated for a day at least, judging by Friday’s big stock market reaction.

So is the euro zone financial crisis over? No, and a lot more work needs to be done. It’s also likely that Friday’s rally will give way to more selling pressure by next week. It’s the Madness of Wall Street and it’s simply how things go.

But here’s the thing: this week’s ability of European leaders to move toward getting something done–even if it is just a bigger band-aid–is one more indication that at the end of the day this crisis will be solved in someway. Oh sure, some nations will get hurt–and more importantly a lot of ordinary people that had nothing to do with the financial crisis will get hurt the most. However, maybe it’s time for everyone–especially those in the media, at hedge funds, bloggers and on Twitter–to back away from some of the worst doom-and-gloom hysteria. Yes, things are bad and could get worse, but is the world really coming undone over the euro zone crisis?

So there’s this election this Sunday in Greece and everyone–who follows the markets–is all excited. But at the end of the day, the main reason people in the markets are all up in arms is because they want to know who will get paid, in what order and most important–how much. Sadly, there’s too little focus on whether the right people/institutions are getting paid; let alone issues of social dignity and the quality of human existence. Guess that’s what the markets are all about, right?

But don’t let any of that stop you from saying thanks to your dad tomorrow. And for all of you dads out there—A Happy Father’s Day. Here then is Sam Forgione’s weekend reads:

From The New Republic:

Dierdre N. McCloskey spans the efforts of economists to gauge happiness.

From Foreign Affairs:

Layna Mosley offers a level analysis of euro zone government debt and how markets view it.

A beautiful summer day in the New York area and the jinx is broken. What jinx, you ask? Well if you’re a long suffering Mets fan you know what I mean–finally a no-hitter. #LETSGOMETS! Oh and yes, here is Sam Forgione’s latest edition of weekend reads. Also don’t forget to follow Sam on Twitter @samuelforgione

From The Atlantic:

William D. Cohan challenges popular beliefs on the cause of the 2008 financial crisis.

From BusinessWeek:

ETFs are becoming increasingly risky to retail investors, Christopher Condon writes.