Wayne's Feed
May 22, 2012

India no longer deserves a credit upgrade

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions
expressed are his own)

By Wayne Arnold

HONG KONG, May 22 (Reuters Breakingviews) – India no longer
deserves a credit ratings upgrade. That hasn’t stopped New Delhi
from lobbying Fitch for one, arguing that foreign inflows
protect it from its persistent current account gap. But the
tumbling rupee says otherwise. Rival rater Standard & Poor’s has
even threatened to cut its rating on India’s debt. With slowing
growth likely to keep government debt high, the risk is that
those inflows go the other way.

May 18, 2012
via Breakingviews

Myanmar must brace for post-sanctions cash deluge

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By Wayne Arnold
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

After 50 years of isolation, Myanmar now faces the danger of being deluged by foreign cash. With U.S. sanctions suspended, it is open season for investment. While inadequate legal and financial infrastructure is unlikely to deter them, they’ll need to work with authorities to make sure their cash doesn’t fuel inflation, inequality and corruption.

May 17, 2012
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Samsung investors should worry less about Apple

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Samsung investors are worrying too much about Apple. The company’s shares have slid on concern the iPhone’s maker might be buying Japanese memory chips to cut its dependence for parts on its South Korean rival. But Apple’s diversification only reflects how smartphone demand is outpacing parts supply. Apple still needs Samsung and Samsung’s valuation has fallen too far.

May 16, 2012
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Asia’s bonds look shinier as Europe and China slump

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Asian bonds seem likely to gain from growing anxiety about Europe and China. The region’s robust finances have made its sovereign debt a safe haven as larger economies sputter. An indiscriminate sell-off would hurt everyone, but Indonesia, Japan and the Philippines all have qualities that should give them greater resilience.

May 15, 2012
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China has strongest hand in Philippine stand-off

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. 

China’s stand-off with the Philippines over disputed islands in the South China Sea puts Manila in a difficult spot. While the Philippines has the support of U.S. military muscle, China is its number-three importer, and it needs China to help fund new mines and fill new casinos. Whoever gets to tap the oil and gas beneath the South China Sea, China would be the biggest buyer. That argues for a peaceful, face-saving solution.

May 7, 2012
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China joins Europe as weak link in Asian trade

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The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own

China has emerged as a weak link in Asian trade. Asia’s exports to the United States are rebounding, offsetting a sharp slide in shipments to Europe. Recovering demand from the world’s largest economy would normally mean more exports to the world’s largest factory: China. But as Beijing reins in growth to rebalance its economy, it seems to need fewer raw materials, parts and machinery from its neighbours. 

Apr 30, 2012
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Samsung moves on from Japan to nibble at Apple

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The Japanese may have pioneered the model of a vertically integrated electronics manufacturer, but Samsung looks to have perfected it. The Korean company started by pulling apart Japanese TV sets, then reverse-engineered the manufacturers’ business model. By avoiding their missteps, it’s driving them out of TVs and carving up the smartphone market with Apple. Now, as more business is coming from emerging markets, Apple needs to watch out for Samsung’s still-growing appetite.

Apr 26, 2012
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Thailand’s weak exports don’t dent recovery story

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Thailand’s weak exports don’t dent its reconstruction tale. Rebuilding after 2011’s floods is likely to produce a V-shaped recovery. Falling European demand is a worry, but investment is booming and output should too once factories reopen. Government handouts will prop up rural consumption, which augurs well for earnings and stocks.

Apr 25, 2012
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DBS deal tests Indonesia’s deep Singapore-phobia

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Even a 52 percent premium may not be enough to snag Indonesia’s biggest bank takeover. DBS of Singapore has offered $7.2 billion for Indonesia’s Bank Danamon in a tie-up that would benefit both banks and burnish Indonesia’s image as a hot destination for foreign investment. But with elections approaching, longstanding mistrust of Singapore could trump commercial logic.

Apr 20, 2012
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Don’t blame Japan for foreign CEO departures

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

It’s not Japan’s fault that the country is losing foreign CEOs. The country’s insular culture may have added to the frustration of departing bosses at Nippon Sheet Glass, Olympus and even Nomura. But merger pains, fraud and headstrong directors are problems everywhere. The more they go abroad, the more Japanese companies will have foreign executives.

    • About Wayne

      "Wayne Arnold is Breakingviews’ Hong Kong based Asia strategist, with 20 years of experience in the region. From 1999 to 2008, he served as the Southeast Asia business and finance correspondent for The New York Times and the International Herald Tribune. In 2008 he helped launch a new daily newspaper in Abu Dhabi, The National, where as its economics columnist, he chronicled Dubai’s financial meltdown. He was previously a columnist and reporter at the Wall Street Journal in Hong Kong and Bloomberg in Tokyo. His stories have spanned from Japan’s financial collapse in 1991 to the global economic crisis. ..."
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