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Apr 10, 2012
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China’s positive data hides healthy economic pain

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

There’s pain lurking behind China’s latest feel-good economic headlines. Although the monthly consumer inflation rate was surprisingly high, producer prices are falling. A monthly $5.35 billion trade surplus hides a decline in export growth rates. If the authorities in China considered rapid GDP growth the highest economic good, such signs of relative economic weakness might encourage them to introduce monetary and fiscal stimuli. But the reformers taking the reins in Beijing may be content to let the economy suffer short-term pain for the sake of longer-term gains.

Mar 30, 2012
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Sweat-free iPads come at a price worth paying

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Apple scores points for pushing to improve conditions for workers in China churning out its iPhones and iPads. But change was inevitable. Yes, Apple commissioned the probe of Foxconn. But the problems uncovered at the Taiwanese company’s factories in mainland China were already well-publicised. Apple may have also jumped before it was pushed. It should now sidestep any crackdown on abuse by Beijing by prompting Foxconn – at long last – to comply with China’s labour laws.

Mar 29, 2012
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Taiwanese money can’t save Japan from Samsung

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Taiwanese money can’t save Sharp from Korea’s Samsung. Foxconn’s $1.6 billion investment buys Japan’s electronics company time. The deal gives Sharp cash and the promise of wider sales too, but does nothing to reduce a global glut in flat-panel screens. Like Sony, Panasonic and Toshiba, Sharp has for too long insisted on fighting for cutthroat markets where it’s no longer competitive. As Hitachi has shown, withdrawal may be the best option.

Mar 27, 2012

BREAKINGVIEWS: India’s policy paralysis sours outlook for stocks

By Wayne Arnold

HONG KONG (Reuters Breakingviews) – The outlook for Indian stocks is poor. Foreign investors have poured $8.9 billion into the country’s shares so far this year, helping to push up the BSE Sensex by more than 11 percent. But India’s dimming growth prospects don’t justify the optimism.

The problem is policy paralysis: heavy debts and political squabbles are keeping Delhi from doing more to remove supply bottlenecks, while rising food and oil prices are preventing the central bank from cutting rates.

Mar 27, 2012

India’s policy paralysis sours outlook for stocks

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions
expressed are his own)

By Wayne Arnold

HONG KONG, March 27 (Reuters Breakingviews) – The outlook
for Indian stocks is poor. Foreign investors have poured $8.9
billion into the country’s shares so far this year, helping to
push up the benchmark stock index in Mumbai by more than 11
percent. But India’s dimming growth prospects don’t justify the
optimism.

Mar 8, 2012
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Indonesia’s mining asset-grab overplays its hand

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Indonesia is overplaying its hand with foreign investors. A decree forcing foreign miners to cut their stakes in projects below 50 percent demonstrates a worrying disregard for overseas capital. Indonesia’s finances are robust, but ongoing fuel supply issues, caused by a lack of energy investment, show it can’t afford to play too rough.

Mar 7, 2012
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Japan quake anniversary shows lessons unlearned

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Japan’s remarkable recovery from last year’s tragic earthquake leaves big lessons unlearned. The economy bounced back more quickly than expected after March’s earthquake, tsunami and resulting nuclear leak. But the government flunked a bigger test by failing to push through painful reforms. Now Japan is a year older, deeper in debt and facing the same economic downward spiral it was in before the catastrophe.

Feb 20, 2012
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Five phases of China hard-landing denial

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

China watchers are in denial over the likelihood of a property crash. While politicians openly worry about China’s too-expensive houses, economists polled by Reuters in January still think 2012’s GDP will grow by 8.3 percent. That’s too optimistic. Here are the frequently heard examples of wishful thinking.

Feb 13, 2012
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IMF offers best way for China to save Europe

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Beijing will almost certainly say it wants to see the euro zone survive at their joint summit on Feb. 14. If so, it should pony up – not by lending directly, but via the International Monetary Fund’s $1 trillion rescue package. That way China not only has a better chance of getting paid back, but may also win a bigger role at the world’s currency watchdog.

Feb 1, 2012
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Asia no refuge from U.S. slump for multinationals

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By Wayne Arnold

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. 

Asia may no longer offer multinationals a refuge from economic storms. Export-dependent Asia is succumbing to lackluster growth in developed markets, sapping a key source of growth for the likes of Caterpillar, DuPont and UPS.

    • About Wayne

      "Wayne Arnold is Breakingviews’ Hong Kong based Asia strategist, with 20 years of experience in the region. From 1999 to 2008, he served as the Southeast Asia business and finance correspondent for The New York Times and the International Herald Tribune. In 2008 he helped launch a new daily newspaper in Abu Dhabi, The National, where as its economics columnist, he chronicled Dubai’s financial meltdown. He was previously a columnist and reporter at the Wall Street Journal in Hong Kong and Bloomberg in Tokyo. His stories have spanned from Japan’s financial collapse in 1991 to the global economic crisis. ..."
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