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	<title>William James</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james</link>
	<description>William James&#039;s Profile</description>
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		<title>Spain yields rise as supply weighs, Greece in focus</title>
		<link>http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/09/markets-bonds-euro-idUSL5E8D92H220120209?feedType=RSS&#038;feedName=everything&#038;virtualBrandChannel=11563</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/02/09/spain-yields-rise-as-supply-weighs-greece-in-focus/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Feb 2012 09:42:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William James</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/02/09/spain-yields-rise-as-supply-weighs-greece-in-focus/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) &#8211; Spanish government bond yields rose on Thursday as an unexpected issue of debt the previous day tempered investor demand, though any progress towards Greece receiving bailout funds was likely to spur fresh appetite for risk. Greece&#8217;s battle to avoid default still dominates sentiment with Bund futures falling 15 ticks to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) &#8211; Spanish government bond<br />
yields rose on Thursday as an unexpected issue of debt<br />
the previous day tempered investor demand, though any progress<br />
towards Greece receiving bailout funds was likely to spur fresh<br />
appetite for risk.</p>
<p>Greece&#8217;s battle to avoid default still dominates sentiment<br />
with Bund futures falling 15 ticks to 137.69 as markets<br />
cautiously anticipated the release of bailout funds, despite<br />
Greek leades failing to agree their part of the deal.</p>
<p>Spanish 10-year yields were 12.5 basis points<br />
higher on the day at 5.368 percent after the country continued<br />
its aggressive fund-raising activity with an unexpected<br />
syndicated debt sale on Wednesday.</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s a supply overhang. The deal was cheap and has repriced<br />
the whole market. People got their full allocations, from what<br />
I&#8217;m hearing,&#8221; a trader said.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, market participants said the Spanish sell-off<br />
could be short-lived if Greece secured the international aid it<br />
badly needs, reducing the risk of a messy Greek default and the<br />
subsequent contagion.</p>
<p>&#8220;Certainly, that (an agreement) would be risk positive and<br />
there still would be a knee-jerk reaction,&#8221; said Peter Chatwell,<br />
rate strategist at Credit Agricole in London.</p>
<p>Euro zone finance ministers, due to meet on Thursday<br />
evening, had hoped for a complete agreement from Greek party<br />
leaders on budget cuts to speed approval of the 130 billion euro<br />
bailout, the country&#8217;s second.</p>
<p>But, despite agreeing most of the required cuts, Finance<br />
Minister Evangelos Venizelos left Athens for the Eurogroup<br />
meeting in Brussels with one issue unresolved.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, markets took the fact that a single hurdle<br />
remained in the drawn-out process of agreeing the reforms<br />
demanded by international lenders was as positive. An accord has<br />
been priced in over recent days, with safe-haven German yields<br />
ticking higher.</p>
<p>&#8220;Our target is that the (10-year) yield should be in the<br />
area of 2.15 percent so we see some pressure to the upside if<br />
there is a positive outcome to the Greek debt situation,&#8221; said<br />
Alessandro Giansanti, rate strategist at ING in Amsterdam.</p>
<p>The 10-year yield was last at 1.985 percent, 1<br />
basis point higher on the day and still struggling to break<br />
conclusively above the 2 percent level which has formed the<br />
upper end of a roughly 20 bps range seen since the start of the<br />
year.</p>
</p>
<p>CENTRAL BANK SIGNALS</p>
<p>The European Central Bank&#8217;s policy meeting later in the day<br />
was set to play second fiddle to developments in the Greek saga,<br />
with few expecting the bank to cut interest rates or announce<br />
new liquidity measures to support the banking sector.</p>
<p>The ECB may, however, indicate its willingness to cut rates<br />
at next month&#8217;s meeting. Its reluctance to pre-commit on rate<br />
cuts meant the main risk was that it would rule out a cut,<br />
leading to a pricing out of the partial expectations indicated<br />
by Euribor futures prices .</p>
<p>&#8220;If today they exclude any possibility of a rate cut, the<br />
market can sell off, particularly at the front end,&#8221; ING&#8217;s<br />
Giansanti said.</p>
<p>The bank was also expected to face questioning over whether<br />
it was considering taking losses on its holdings of Greek<br />
government bonds to help ease Athens&#8217;s debt burden with any sign<br />
of concession being taken as a positive for riskier assets.</p>
<p>&#8220;Anything that would lower the debt burden on Greece would<br />
be viewed as a market positive,&#8221; Credit Agricole&#8217;s Chatwell<br />
said.</p>
<p>The Bank of England was also meeting, with widespread<br />
expectations it will announce fresh quantitative easing leaving<br />
UK bond markets vulnerable to disappointment. This may in turn<br />
add to downward momentum in Bunds prices.</p>
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		<title>Euro zone rescue fund eyes February debt sale; leverage</title>
		<link>http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/uk-efsf-funding-idUSTRE81720R20120208?feedType=RSS&#038;feedName=everything&#038;virtualBrandChannel=11563</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/02/08/euro-zone-rescue-fund-eyes-february-debt-sale-leverage/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Feb 2012 19:44:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William James</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/02/08/euro-zone-rescue-fund-eyes-february-debt-sale-leverage/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[LONDON (Reuters) &#8211; The euro zone&#8217;s EFSF rescue fund is eyeing a return to the bond market at the end of February or early March to enable it to fulfil its next disbursement for Ireland, an EU source said on Wednesday. Plans to leverage the fund&#8217;s capacity and give it more firepower to prevent the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LONDON (Reuters) &#8211; The euro zone&#8217;s EFSF rescue fund is eyeing a return to the bond market at the end of February or early March to enable it to fulfil its next disbursement for Ireland, an EU source said on Wednesday.</p>
<p>Plans to leverage the fund&#8217;s capacity and give it more firepower to prevent the spread of the debt crisis were also progressing, with the first of two mechanisms it could make use of expected to be in place by the end of the month, according to the source with direct knowledge of the matter.</p>
<p>The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) is currently weighing its options and could issue a new T-bill in the third week of February or undertake a new syndicated bond issue, the source said.</p>
<p>Europe&#8217;s rescue fund raised 3 billion euros in January as confidence returned to the bond markets and the euro zone crisis abated.</p>
<p>The huge injection of liquidity into the European banking system by the European Central Bank at the end of December has also contributed to more favourable market conditions for issuers.</p>
<p>The EFSF would not just eye the three-year part of the curve, where liquidity has been abundant, but longer maturities as well.</p>
<p>&#8220;The impact of the LTRO (long-term refinancing operation) has also been on the five-year sector,&#8221; an EU source said. &#8220;There is strong demand for long dated paper and investors are starving for yield.&#8221;</p>
<p>The EFSF can issue up to 30-year maturities, although its longest bond to date is 10 years. The EU successfully tapped into long dated investor demand in January when it priced its inaugural 30-year bond.</p>
<p>LEVERAGE PLANS PROGRESS</p>
<p>The source also said that the EFSF hopes to have a guarantee scheme in place by the end of the month that would, if needed, insure around 20-30 percent of a country&#8217;s bonds &#8211; the first of two planned mechanisms to leverage the fund&#8217;s capacity and provide a firewall against the spread of sovereign stress.</p>
<p>The guarantee certificates would be issued by the EFSF separately to the bond, allowing the insurance to trade independently and act as protection against a default on all holdings of existing bonds from the issuer &#8212; avoiding the problem of a two-tiered market.</p>
<p>A second scheme, to provide an investment vehicle which would see the EFSF stomach the first slice of any losses on a portfolio of euro zone sovereign bonds, was likely to be up and running sometime in March.</p>
<p>&#8220;The fund would invest in bonds of the country in secondary or primary markets, and if there was a default on those bonds &#8230; we would take the first loss,&#8221; the source said.</p>
<p>Both schemes could be deployed to provide support for sovereigns not in receipt of bailout programmes, but experiencing difficulty raising funds on the market.</p>
<p>&#8220;We will be ready very soon, which is not to say that we would do anything yet, because we need to wait for the country to ask for assistance,&#8221; the source said.</p>
<p>A country would need to request help and receive approval from member states before either option could be used to provide assistance.</p>
<p>FUNDING FLEXIBILITY</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the EFSF will be given more flexibility in its access to bond markets and will be able to raise money well in advance of when it has to be paid out. This change is expected to go through before the end of the month.</p>
<p>So far, the borrower has been hostage to market conditions when it has needed to bring deals. In November, the issuer had to delay a bond issue by a week as market conditions made it difficult to raise funds.</p>
<p>While pre-funding has the benefit of being able to access bond markets when conditions are at their best, it is also tricky as it mean having to park in very safe assets.</p>
<p>&#8220;As a result of this, the EFSF may have to face a negative carry and the EFSF needs to find a way to charge for this,&#8221; the source said. &#8220;Even if it comes at a certain cost, it is beneficial to be able to maintain some kind of liquidity buffer.&#8221;</p>
<p>(Reporting by William James at Reuters, and <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&#038;n=natalie.harrison&#038;">Natalie Harrison</a> and Helene Durand at IFR; Editing by Andrew Hay)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Euro zone rescue fund eyes Feb debt sale</title>
		<link>http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/us-efsf-funding-idUSTRE8171ZD20120208?feedType=RSS&#038;feedName=everything&#038;virtualBrandChannel=11563</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/02/08/euro-zone-rescue-fund-eyes-feb-debt-sale/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Feb 2012 19:32:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William James</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/02/08/euro-zone-rescue-fund-eyes-feb-debt-sale/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[LONDON (Reuters) &#8211; The euro zone&#8217;s EFSF rescue fund is eyeing a return to the bond market at the end of February or early March to enable it to fulfill its next disbursement for Ireland, an EU source said on Wednesday. Plans to leverage the fund&#8217;s capacity and give it more firepower to prevent the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LONDON (Reuters) &#8211; The euro zone&#8217;s EFSF rescue fund is eyeing a return to the bond market at the end of February or early March to enable it to fulfill its next disbursement for Ireland, an EU source said on Wednesday.</p>
<p>Plans to leverage the fund&#8217;s capacity and give it more firepower to prevent the spread of the debt crisis were also progressing, with the first of two mechanisms it could make use of expected to be in place by the end of the month, according to the source with direct knowledge of the matter.</p>
<p>The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) is currently weighing its options and could issue a new T-bill in the third week of February or undertake a new syndicated bond issue, the source said.</p>
<p>Europe&#8217;s rescue fund raised 3 billion euros in January as confidence returned to the bond markets and the euro zone crisis abated.</p>
<p>The huge injection of liquidity into the European banking system by the European Central Bank at the end of December has also contributed to more favorable market conditions for issuers.</p>
<p>The EFSF would not just eye the three-year part of the curve, where liquidity has been abundant, but longer maturities as well.</p>
<p>&#8220;The impact of the LTRO (long-term refinancing operation) has also been on the five-year sector,&#8221; an EU source said. &#8220;There is strong demand for long dated paper and investors are starving for yield.&#8221;</p>
<p>The EFSF can issue up to 30-year maturities, although its longest bond to date is 10 years. The EU successfully tapped into long dated investor demand in January when it priced its inaugural 30-year bond.</p>
<p>LEVERAGE PLANS PROGRESS</p>
<p>The source also said that the EFSF hopes to have a guarantee scheme in place by the end of the month that would, if needed, insure around 20-30 percent of a country&#8217;s bonds &#8211; the first of two planned mechanisms to leverage the fund&#8217;s capacity and provide a firewall against the spread of sovereign stress.</p>
<p>The guarantee certificates would be issued by the EFSF separately to the bond, allowing the insurance to trade independently and act as protection against a default on all holdings of existing bonds from the issuer &#8212; avoiding the problem of a two-tiered market.</p>
<p>A second scheme, to provide an investment vehicle which would see the EFSF stomach the first slice of any losses on a portfolio of euro zone sovereign bonds, was likely to be up and running sometime in March.</p>
<p>&#8220;The fund would invest in bonds of the country in secondary or primary markets, and if there was a default on those bonds &#8230; we would take the first loss,&#8221; the source said.</p>
<p>Both schemes could be deployed to provide support for sovereigns not in receipt of bailout programs, but experiencing difficulty raising funds on the market.</p>
<p>&#8220;We will be ready very soon, which is not to say that we would do anything yet, because we need to wait for the country to ask for assistance,&#8221; the source said.</p>
<p>A country would need to request help and receive approval from member states before either option could be used to provide assistance.</p>
<p>FUNDING FLEXIBILITY</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the EFSF will be given more flexibility in its access to bond markets and will be able to raise money well in advance of when it has to be paid out. This change is expected to go through before the end of the month.</p>
<p>So far, the borrower has been hostage to market conditions when it has needed to bring deals. In November, the issuer had to delay a bond issue by a week as market conditions made it difficult to raise funds.</p>
<p>While pre-funding has the benefit of being able to access bond markets when conditions are at their best, it is also tricky as it mean having to park in very safe assets.</p>
<p>&#8220;As a result of this, the EFSF may have to face a negative carry and the EFSF needs to find a way to charge for this,&#8221; the source said. &#8220;Even if it comes at a certain cost, it is beneficial to be able to maintain some kind of liquidity buffer.&#8221;</p>
<p>(Reporting by William James at Reuters, and <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&#038;n=natalie.harrison&#038;">Natalie Harrison</a> and Helene Durand at IFR; Editing by Andrew Hay)</p>
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		<title>Bunds slide as markets anticipate Greek deal</title>
		<link>http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/07/markets-bonds-euro-idUSL5E8D761O20120207?feedType=RSS&#038;feedName=everything&#038;virtualBrandChannel=11563</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/02/07/bunds-slide-as-markets-anticipate-greek-deal/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2012 17:38:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William James</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/02/07/bunds-slide-as-markets-anticipate-greek-deal/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) &#8211; German Bund futures slipped by more than half a point on Tuesday as demand for safe-haven assets cooled on signs that Greece may reach a political agreement over painful reforms necessary to secure badly needed bailout funding. Greece&#8217;s government is preparing a document to present to political leaders for approval, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) &#8211; German Bund futures slipped<br />
by more than half a point on Tuesday as demand for safe-haven<br />
assets cooled on signs that Greece may reach a political<br />
agreement over painful reforms necessary to secure badly needed<br />
bailout funding.</p>
<p>Greece&#8217;s government is preparing a document to present to<br />
political leaders for approval, potentially taking the country<br />
one step closer to a 130 billion euro bailout deal needed to<br />
avert the chaos of a debt default in March.</p>
<p>Confirmation of an accord, which could come as early as<br />
Tuesday evening, may spark a rally in the region&#8217;s more risky<br />
bonds, driving Spanish and Italian borrowing costs lower and<br />
pushing Bund yields higher towards a fresh test of the 2 percent<br />
level.</p>
<p>Even the prospect of an agreement later in the day was<br />
enough to prompt investors to cut their holdings of low-risk<br />
German Bunds and reduce the risk premium on Italian debt to its<br />
lowest since the end of October.</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s really all about Greece and speculation there:<br />
expectation is building that they will cobble something together<br />
because the consequences of them not are pretty gloom and doom<br />
for all of us,&#8221; a trader said.</p>
<p>The March Bund futures contract reversed earlier<br />
gains to hit a low of 137.83, down 80 ticks on the day.</p>
<p>Bunds could fall as far as the Jan. 24 low of 137.18, having<br />
broken through resistance at 138.13 &#8211; the bottom of Friday&#8217;s<br />
selloff, UBS technical charts suggested.</p>
<p>Yields on 10-year Italian debt fell to 5.61<br />
percent, narrowing the yield spread over German Bunds<br />
 to a three-month low of 364 basis points.</p>
<p>Any Greek deal is likely to spur more spread-tightening.</p>
<p>&#8220;It will be a relief sell-off in the core and a relief rally<br />
in the periphery,&#8221; said Achilleas Georgolopoulos, strategist at<br />
Lloyds Bank in London.</p>
<p>&#8220;It won&#8217;t be a massive reaction but we can easily see<br />
another five to 10 basis points Bunds higher tomorrow, provided<br />
we get the announcement they agreed.&#8221;</p>
<p>The extent of the selloff was likely to be capped by the<br />
many unanswered questions surrounding Greece&#8217;s battle to avoid a<br />
default &#8212; including whether the country can successfully<br />
execute a deal with private bondholders to writedown their debt.</p>
<p>&#8220;There will be a lot of uncertainty until we get a<br />
resolution on the PSI (private sector involvement) front too.<br />
It&#8217;s a complex situation with a lot of moving parts and players<br />
and I think the market will remain jittery for some time yet,&#8221;<br />
the trader said.</p>
<p>That meant the 1.8 percent to 2 percent range which has<br />
largely contained 10-year German Bund yields throughout January<br />
was likely to hold in the short term, market participants said.</p>
</p>
</p>
</p>
</p>
<p>PORTUGAL PROBLEMS PERSIST</p>
<p>Portuguese bonds were steady after the ECB started buying<br />
the debt in recent days to stem a sell-off that sent yields to<br />
euro-era peaks on concerns Portugal could be the next to follow<br />
Greece into seeking a second bailout and debt restructuring.</p>
<p>Its yield curve remained inverted, with two-year bonds<br />
yielding over 2 percentage points more than 10-year paper,<br />
reflecting persistent investor worries that they may not get<br />
their money back.</p>
<p>&#8220;Although Portugal is no Greece, nevertheless there are<br />
justifiable concerns. Without significant structural reform and<br />
a substantial internal devaluation, the economy simply lacks the<br />
necessary wealth creation to underpin a meaningful recovery,&#8221;<br />
said FxPro chief strategist Michael Derks.</p>
<p>&#8220;Despite yesterday&#8217;s vehement denials from the Finance<br />
Ministry, a significant debt restructuring is highly likely at<br />
some point in the next couple of years.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>Money markets position for &#8216;wait-and-see&#8217; ECB</title>
		<link>http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/06/markets-money-idUSL5E8D63AE20120206?feedType=RSS&#038;feedName=everything&#038;virtualBrandChannel=11563</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/02/06/money-markets-position-for-wait-and-see-ecb/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 15:36:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William James</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/02/06/money-markets-position-for-wait-and-see-ecb/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) &#8211; Interbank markets show little expectation that the European Central Bank will commit to new injections of long-term banking loans or signal a cut in interest rates at its February policy meeting later this week. Prices showed the predicted path of overnight bank to bank lending rates &#8211; which are typically [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) &#8211; Interbank markets show<br />
little expectation that the European Central Bank will commit to<br />
new injections of long-term banking loans or signal a cut in<br />
interest rates at its February policy meeting later this week.</p>
<p>Prices showed the predicted path of overnight bank to bank<br />
lending rates &#8211; which are typically closely correlated with the<br />
ECB refinancing rate &#8211; was broadly flat over the first half of<br />
the year.</p>
<p>Analysts expect ECB President Mario Draghi to praise the<br />
impact of steps taken in December which have boosted banks&#8217; cash<br />
buffers with half a trillion euros of three-year loans, unfrozen<br />
bank funding markets and pushed interbank borrowing rates lower.</p>
<p>&#8220;Currently there is not the need for the ECB to come up with<br />
more ideas,&#8221; said Kornelius Purps, strategist at Unicredit.</p>
<p>&#8220;The risk that banks will face serious difficulties in<br />
getting their business funding has been trimmed extremely<br />
successfully.&#8221;</p>
<p>Reflecting this view, measures of counterparty stress in the<br />
bank-to-bank lending market eased further. The Libor/OIS spread<br />
narrowed to stand at 68 basis points, down from more than 90 bps<br />
in December, and forward markets pointed to a spread of around<br />
40 bps by year-end.</p>
<p>The central bank will hold on Feb. 29 a second offer of<br />
three-month loans, which is expected to add to the large surplus<br />
of long-term cash in the euro system.</p>
<p>A Reuters poll of money market traders showed banks were<br />
expected to borrow 400 billion euros at the operation.<br />
Speculation last month had been of a take-up as high as a<br />
trillion euros though money market players generally expect a<br />
lower figure.</p>
<p>Analysts said the ECB was unlikely to announce more loan<br />
tenders at Thursday&#8217;s policy meeting, preferring instead to take<br />
a wait-and-see approach on whether December&#8217;s strong demand<br />
would be matched at the Feb. 29 long-term refinancing operation<br />
(LTRO).</p>
<p>&#8220;They could well say that we are riding the LTRO wave and<br />
sentiment in the market has improved a bit, so why spend the<br />
last ammunition they have at their disposal?,&#8221; said Elwin de<br />
Groot, senior market economist at Rabobank in Utrecht.</p>
</p>
<p>RATE EXPECTATIONS</p>
<p>Prices showed markets were not expecting a change in the<br />
ECB&#8217;s main refinancing rate, although there were tentative signs<br />
that some investors were looking to hedge against a surprise<br />
cut.</p>
<p>March Euribor futures rallied last week, suggesting<br />
some were positioning for a drop in interbank rates as a result<br />
of an interest rate cut.</p>
<p>The contract was last trading at 99.1, implying an expected<br />
three-month Euribor rate of 0.9 percent by March &#8211; well below<br />
the current fixing of 1.094 percent. The ECB&#8217;s<br />
refinancing rate currently stands at a record-low 1 percent.</p>
<p>&#8220;Basically that suggests the market thinks that three-month<br />
Euribor rates will fall below 1 percent and part of that could<br />
be driven by expectation of another rate cut,&#8221; de Groot said.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, he cautioned that the Euribor contract<br />
contained a risk premium and the rally did not imply a strong<br />
conviction for a rate cut.</p>
<p>Economists at RBC Capital Markets expected rate cuts in the<br />
coming months, but said more evidence was needed on how the<br />
ECB&#8217;s policy easing was impacting the euro zone economy.</p>
<p>&#8220;If the ECB succeeds in easing funding conditions for banks<br />
in the periphery and if that translates into stronger credit<br />
supply, then that in itself should spur activity and inflation,&#8221;<br />
the bank said in a note.</p>
<p>&#8220;In those circumstance, there would be less need for further<br />
rate cuts.&#8221;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Bond markets price in second bailout for Portugal</title>
		<link>http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/31/markets-bonds-portugal-idUSL5E8CV32O20120131?feedType=RSS&#038;feedName=everything&#038;virtualBrandChannel=11563</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/01/31/bond-markets-price-in-second-bailout-for-portugal/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Jan 2012 14:43:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William James</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/01/31/bond-markets-price-in-second-bailout-for-portugal/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) &#8211; Portuguese bond yields have soared to levels that show markets expect the country will be unable to repay its debts without more bailout cash and will follow Greece in asking bondholders to stomach losses on their investments. Ten-year Portuguese bond yields hit a euro-era high of more than 17 percent [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) &#8211; Portuguese bond yields have<br />
soared to levels that show markets expect the country will be<br />
unable to repay its debts without more bailout cash and will<br />
follow Greece in asking bondholders to stomach losses on their<br />
investments.</p>
<p>Ten-year Portuguese bond yields hit a euro-era<br />
high of more than 17 percent on Monday, matching levels seen in<br />
Greece five months ago.</p>
</p>
<p>When Greek yields were last at 17 percent, in<br />
August, Athens was already negotiating a deal with private<br />
creditors to accept a loss on their bondholdings &#8211; dubbed<br />
private sector involvement (PSI) &#8211; which was needed to unlock a<br />
second infusion of bailout cash.</p>
<p>With yields at such high levels, Greece was frozen out of<br />
debt markets and had to ask for extra funding when it became<br />
clear it would not be able to raise money from investors once<br />
its aid package was exhausted.</p>
<p>Portuguese bond prices &#8211; 10-year paper trades at just 42<br />
percent of face value &#8211; suggest investors do not expect to get<br />
all their money back and that the government will be forced to<br />
seek a restructuring of its debt.</p>
<p>&#8220;At some point you have a deadline looming where the bailout<br />
package assumes a return to the bond market&#8230; for now the path<br />
of least resistance seems to be more repricing towards a<br />
potential Greek-style PSI,&#8221; said David Schnautz, strategist at<br />
Commerzbank in London.</p>
<p>Portugal is scheduled to resume selling bonds in 2013 under<br />
the terms of its current 78 billion euro bailout.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Bunds fall as EU summit provides limited relief</title>
		<link>http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/31/markets-bonds-euro-idUSL5E8CV2YW20120131?feedType=RSS&#038;feedName=everything&#038;virtualBrandChannel=11563</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/01/31/bunds-fall-as-eu-summit-provides-limited-relief/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Jan 2012 13:04:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William James</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/01/31/bunds-fall-as-eu-summit-provides-limited-relief/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) &#8211; German Bund futures fell on Tuesday and demand for some peripheral bonds rose as EU states agreed to a pact for stricter budget discipline, although the improved sentiment towards risk was overshadowed by the still-unresolved Greek debt swap talks. European leaders approved new measures intended to prevent a repeat of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) &#8211; German Bund futures fell on<br />
Tuesday and demand for some peripheral bonds rose as EU states<br />
agreed to a pact for stricter budget discipline, although the<br />
improved sentiment towards risk was overshadowed by the<br />
still-unresolved Greek debt swap talks.</p>
<p>European leaders approved new measures intended to prevent a<br />
repeat of the massive overspending that contributed to the<br />
current crisis, giving risk sentiment a lift, but differences<br />
remained over the limits of austerity.</p>
<p>In Greece, Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said he hoped to<br />
reach deals by the end of the week both with its private<br />
creditors over restructuring 200 billion euros of debt and with<br />
its international lenders on conditions tied to a second<br />
bailout.</p>
<p>That eased some of the recent pressure on Portugal, which<br />
has been seen as next in line after Greece for requiring a<br />
second bailout. Ten-year Portuguese government bond yields<br />
 tumbled 67 basis points, but at 16.73 percent they<br />
remain prohibitively high.</p>
<p>&#8220;We are seeing Portugal very much under the cull still so<br />
that obviously should get more and more difficult for the market<br />
to shrug off,&#8221; David Schnautz, interest rate strategist at<br />
Commerzbank said.</p>
<p>German Bund futures fell 39 ticks on the day to<br />
139.28 but still within sight of a record high of 140.23.</p>
<p>&#8220;We are flirting with a real attack on the 140 level in Bund<br />
(futures)&#8230; we just touched 1.80 in the 10-year yield and there<br />
seems to be something of a resistance there, (but) we have<br />
already seen buying on dips,&#8221; Schnautz added.</p>
<p>Ten-year German government bond yields rose<br />
4.4 basis points to 1.83 percent.</p>
<p>&#8220;There&#8217;s a bit of relief and a bit of a technical reaction<br />
given the Bund is reaching critical levels&#8230; but from our point<br />
of view (the pullback) doesn&#8217;t really look convincing,&#8221; said<br />
Michael Leister, strategist at DZ Bank.</p>
<p>UBS technical analysis suggested the outlook remained<br />
bullish for German debt, while the contract traded above 138.78<br />
- the 38 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rise since Jan 24.</p>
<p>LIMITED RELIEF</p>
<p>Progress towards tighter fiscal union was likely to be<br />
interpreted by investors as a long-term positive.</p>
<p>The EU agreement was seen helping stall Monday&#8217;s selling<br />
pressure on Italian debt. Ten-year yields fell 6.4 bps on the<br />
day to 6.04 percent, while two-year Portuguese<br />
bond yields shed 11 bps to 21.14 percent.</p>
<p>But short-term worries over Greece and Portugal were set to<br />
slow the momentum behind a broad move into riskier assets seen<br />
since the European Central Bank flooded the market with cash in<br />
December.</p>
<p>&#8220;People are still generally taking a positive view (on Spain<br />
and Italy), but we&#8217;re getting down to some big levels where<br />
people are more comfortable trimming back their longs and maybe<br />
putting on some shorts,&#8221; a trader said.</p>
<p>Ten-year Spanish government bond yields were<br />
up 1.3 basis points at 4.82 percent.</p>
<p>In a further sign of ongoing risks to the euro zone,<br />
unemployment remained high, underscoring the difficulty the<br />
region is having balancing its austerity drive with growth.</p>
<p>Euro zone unemployment has risen to its highest level since<br />
the euro single currency was introduced, data showed on Tuesday,<br />
a day after EU leaders promised to focus on creating millions of<br />
new jobs to try to kickstart Europe&#8217;s floundering economy.</p>
<p>Seasonally adjusted unemployment among the 17 countries<br />
sharing the euro rose to 10.4 percent in December.</p>
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		<title>Safe-haven grab eases as Greece, EU make progress</title>
		<link>http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/31/markets-bonds-euro-idUSL5E8CV1OJ20120131?feedType=RSS&#038;feedName=everything&#038;virtualBrandChannel=11563</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/01/31/safe-haven-grab-eases-as-greece-eu-make-progress/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Jan 2012 09:33:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William James</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/01/31/safe-haven-grab-eases-as-greece-eu-make-progress/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) &#8211; German debt futures fell and demand for Italian and Spanish bonds firmed on Tuesday as markets looked for positives in talks on Greek debt writedowns and an agreement of a new European fiscal pact. European leaders approved strict new measures on sovereign budget discipline, intended to prevent a repeat of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) &#8211; German debt futures fell<br />
and demand for Italian and Spanish bonds firmed on Tuesday as<br />
markets looked for positives in talks on Greek debt writedowns<br />
and an agreement of a new European fiscal pact.</p>
<p>European leaders approved strict new measures on sovereign<br />
budget discipline, intended to prevent a repeat of the massive<br />
overspending pushing some to sell bonds of higher-risk euro zone<br />
states.</p>
<p>In response, the price of German debt futures<br />
slipped 22 ticks to 139.45 as demand for the one of euro zone&#8217;s<br />
safest and most liquid assets eased from recent extremes.</p>
<p>&#8220;The move that we are seeing is based on the idea that at<br />
least the politicians didn&#8217;t disappoint investors too much. In<br />
terms of new information, there wasn&#8217;t that much from the<br />
summit,&#8221; said Michael Leister, strategist at DZ Bank.</p>
<p>&#8220;There&#8217;s a bit of relief and a bit of a technical reaction<br />
given the Bund is reaching critical levels&#8230; but from our point<br />
of view (the pullback) doesn&#8217;t really look convincing.&#8221;</p>
<p>On Monday, the contract rose close to its record high of<br />
140.23 after a recent slew of rating downgrades and with markets<br />
targeting Portugal as the bloc&#8217;s next weakest link behind<br />
Greece.</p>
<p>UBS technical analysis said the outlook remained bullish for<br />
German debt while the contract traded above 138.78 &#8211; the 38<br />
percent Fibonacci retracement of the rise since Jan 24.</p>
</p>
<p>LIMITED RELIEF</p>
<p>Portuguese short-dated bond yields rose further, showing the<br />
market&#8217;s pessimism over the country&#8217;s grim economic outlook and<br />
its ability to meet bond repayments without fresh aid or a debt<br />
restructuring.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, progress towards tighter fiscal union was<br />
likely to be interpreted by investors as a long-term positive.</p>
<p>The EU agreement was seen helping stall Monday&#8217;s selling<br />
pressure on Italian debt. Ten-year yields fell 8 bps on the day<br />
to 6.02 percent while the Spanish equivalent<br />
 eased 2.5 bps to 4.79 percent.</p>
<p>But short-term worries over Greece and Portugal were set to<br />
slow the momentum behind a broad move into riskier assets seen<br />
since the European Central Bank flooded the market with cash in<br />
December.</p>
<p>&#8220;People are still generally taking a positive view (on Spain<br />
and Italy), but we&#8217;re getting down to some big levels where<br />
people are more comfortable trimming back their longs and maybe<br />
putting on some shorts,&#8221; a trader said.</p>
<p>Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said talks between<br />
Greece and its private creditors had made significant progress<br />
and that the aim  was to reach a definitive deal by the end of<br />
the week.</p>
<p>Markets were likely to take comfort from any further signs<br />
of progress in the talks, although relief would be limited by<br />
the knock-on effect to Portugal, where many now see a similar<br />
writedown of public debt as inevitable.</p>
<p>Portuguese two-year bond yields rose 36 basis<br />
points on the day to 21.6 percent, reflecting near term<br />
concerns. Ten-year yields eased back from their<br />
euro era highs, falling 14 bps to 17.25 percent, unwinding only<br />
a fraction of the 185 bps rise seen on Monday.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Markets push Portugal towards bond pariah Greece</title>
		<link>http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/30/eurozone-portugal-idUSL5E8CU4SC20120130?feedType=RSS&#038;feedName=everything&#038;virtualBrandChannel=11563</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/01/30/markets-push-portugal-towards-bond-pariah-greece/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jan 2012 23:05:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William James</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/01/30/markets-push-portugal-towards-bond-pariah-greece/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[LONDON/LISBON, Jan 30 (Reuters) &#8211; Portugal&#8217;s slide towards becoming the next Greece &#8211; needing a second bailout to avoid bankruptcy &#8211; accelerated on Monday as untrusting underwriters hiked the cost of insuring Lisbon&#8217;s bonds to new highs and insisted it be paid up front. Business and consumer confidence also hit record lows, the latter battered [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LONDON/LISBON, Jan 30 (Reuters) &#8211; Portugal&#8217;s slide<br />
towards becoming the next Greece &#8211; needing a second bailout to<br />
avoid bankruptcy &#8211; accelerated on Monday as untrusting<br />
underwriters hiked the cost of insuring Lisbon&#8217;s bonds to new<br />
highs and insisted it be paid up front.</p>
<p>Business and consumer confidence also hit record lows, the<br />
latter battered by the lower salaries and across-the-board tax<br />
hikes that were part of Portugal&#8217;s painful austerity programme.</p>
<p>Banks and others offering default insurance to holders of<br />
Portuguese sovereign debt have begun demanding huge up-front<br />
payments rather than allowing costs to be spread over the term<br />
of the contract.</p>
<p>On Monday, this meant that it cost a whopping 3.95 million<br />
euros to insure 10 million euros in bonds over five years,<br />
payable now.</p>
<p>It made Portugal the second-highest sovereign to insure in<br />
the world, after Greece, and implied a huge lack of confidence<br />
in market circles about Lisbon&#8217;s future.</p>
<p>While Italian and Spanish borrowing costs have fallen,<br />
Portuguese bonds have come under intense pressure from investors<br />
after Standard &#038; Poor&#8217;s downgraded 15 euro zone countries<br />
earlier in January, putting Portugal in the &#8220;junk&#8221; category.</p>
<p>Its already soaring 10-year bond yields surged<br />
on Monday by 171 basis points to 17.353 percent, suffering their<br />
third worst day in the euro era and adding to expectations that<br />
Lisbon will have to get a second bailout from the European Union<br />
and International Monetary Fund to go with the 78 billion euro<br />
package it has already been handed.</p>
<p>There is also increasing concern that Portugal will be<br />
forced to restructure its debt like Greece, even though its debt<br />
levels of around 105 percent of gross domestic product are much<br />
lower than Greek ones.</p>
<p>In Brussels for an EU summit, Portuguese Prime Minister<br />
Pedro Passos Coelho pinned the blame on a failure to sort out a<br />
second Greek bailout, for his country&#8217;s troubles.</p>
<p>&#8220;The Greek situation continues, after all this time, to be<br />
the main factor of instability,&#8221; he told reporters. &#8220;It would be<br />
very good for everybody in Europe and for Portugal that the<br />
situation in Greece is resolved as soon as possible.&#8221;</p>
</p>
<p>LACK OF CONFIDENCE</p>
<p>The decline in business and consumer confidence reflected<br />
both Portugal&#8217;s dire economic condition and the pain of<br />
austerity imposed as a condition of its first bailout.</p>
<p>The economic climate indicator, which measures business<br />
confidence, slumped to minus 4.7 in January from minus 4.4 in<br />
December, the National Statistics Institute said. A year ago it<br />
stood at plus 1.6.</p>
<p>INE said its consumer confidence indicator fell to a<br />
negative reading of 57.1 in January &#8211; also the lowest on record<br />
- after minus 56.8 in December.</p>
<p>&#8220;For consumers, we couldn&#8217;t expect anything else, the start<br />
of the year brought more unemployment and higher taxes and<br />
obviously that is reflected in confidence,&#8221; said Filipe Garcia,<br />
economist at Informacao de Mercados Financeiros.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the demand for so-called up-front payments on<br />
bond insurance policies, or credit defaults swaps (CDS) showed a<br />
growing distrust among banks of Portugal&#8217;s ability to pay its<br />
debts.</p>
<p>Prices are quoted up front when they reach extreme levels<br />
and require the buyer of protection to pay a single lump sum<br />
instead of annual premiums.</p>
<p>Up-front payments for Greece began in September last year.</p>
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		<title>Portuguese yields soar as Greece comparisons grow</title>
		<link>http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/30/markets-bonds-euro-idUSL5E8CU43C20120130?feedType=RSS&#038;feedName=everything&#038;virtualBrandChannel=11563</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/01/30/portuguese-yields-soar-as-greece-comparisons-grow/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jan 2012 18:29:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William James</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/william-james/2012/01/30/portuguese-yields-soar-as-greece-comparisons-grow/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters) &#8211; The price of Portuguese bonds tumbled on Monday, driven by evaporating confidence that the country can avoid following in Greece&#8217;s footsteps by requiring more bailout cash and a writedown of its existing debt. Investors were demanding an annual return of more than 17 percent &#8211; the most since the launch [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters) &#8211; The price of Portuguese<br />
bonds tumbled on Monday, driven by evaporating confidence that<br />
the country can avoid following in Greece&#8217;s footsteps by<br />
requiring more bailout cash and a writedown of its existing<br />
debt.</p>
<p>Investors were demanding an annual return of more than 17<br />
percent &#8211; the most since the launch of the single currency &#8211; to<br />
buy 10-year Portuguese debt in the secondary market, sending<br />
bond prices tumbling to around 40 percent of their face value.</p>
<p>The grim perception of Portugal&#8217;s ability to overcome a poor<br />
economic outlook and repay its debts meant that underwriters of<br />
insurance on its bonds saw a high enough chance of a default to<br />
demand payment up front on new contracts.</p>
<p>&#8220;Portugal is the new Greece&#8230; People have learned their<br />
lesson with Greece and I think they will keep (Portugal) in the<br />
firing line for now,&#8221; a trader said.</p>
<p>Traders also pointed to a fresh round of forced selling,<br />
with some index-linked investors having to ditch the bonds from<br />
their portfolio before month-end after Standard and Poor&#8217;s<br />
became on Jan. 13 the third rating agency to give Portugal a<br />
junk rating.</p>
<p>Ten-year Portuguese yields rose by 171 basis<br />
points to 17.353 percent, suffering their third worst day in the<br />
euro era.</p>
</p>
<p>ITALY QUESTIONS PERSIST</p>
<p>Italian yields also rose, unwinding some of their recent<br />
strong performance ahead of an auction of five and 10-year debt.<br />
The move showed that demand for the country&#8217;s bond remained<br />
fragile despite the positive impact that European Central Bank<br />
efforts to flood banks with cash have had on the market since<br />
December.</p>
<p>The auction results failed to live up to a recent run of<br />
very successful short-term debt sales, but did not prompt a<br />
fresh round of selling to add to the pre-auction moves.</p>
<p>&#8220;The re-openings all show the favourable trend of declining<br />
yields remains intact and, moreover, demand has been solid<br />
enough to firm the market up post-auction,&#8221; said Peter Chatwell,<br />
strategist at Credit Agricole.</p>
<p>Lower yields highlighted the recent easing of borrowing<br />
costs, but analysts said demand for longer-dated debt was yet to<br />
provide complete reassurance over the country&#8217;s ability to fund<br />
itself.</p>
<p>Italy sold its 10-year benchmark bond at a gross yield of<br />
6.08 percent, while a new five-year bond was sold at 5.39<br />
percent.</p>
</p>
<p>BUNDS BENEFIT</p>
<p>As investors turned their back on riskier assets, safe-haven<br />
German Bund futures rose sharply to within sight of<br />
record highs. The contract set a session high of 139.77, up<br />
nearly a full point and close to the Jan. 13 peak of 140.23.</p>
<p>The rise may extend on Tuesday as Greece battles to secure<br />
an agreement with private creditors over how to writedown their<br />
outstanding debts and avoid default.</p>
<p>The outcome of a summit of euro zone leaders was expected to<br />
reveal little to calm the market, market participants said.</p>
<p>&#8220;Until they get the Greek deal out of the way with a decent<br />
result then I think markets are going to be slightly averse to<br />
piling on a load more risk,&#8221; said Eric Wand, strategist at<br />
Lloyds Bank in London.</p>
<p>&#8220;Core markets have come a hell of a long way. We had a<br />
little retracement this afternoon, but came back bid and that<br />
tells you they have decent support.&#8221;</p>
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