Euro steadies, vulnerable to euro zone anxiety
LONDON (Reuters) – The euro rose on Friday as the threat of a destabilizing referendum in Greece looked to have subsided, but stiff technical resistance and the risk of fresh flare-ups in the euro zone’s debt crisis kept a lid on gains.
After a week of volatile trading many speculators were reluctant to open big positions ahead of key U.S. jobs data at 1230 GMT and awaiting the conclusions of the Group of 20 leaders summit taking place in Cannes.
The euro was last 0.25 percent higher at $1.3854, taking it back above the 55-day moving average of $1.3839 which has capped the currency in recent sessions.
The options market continued to show increased worries about the risk of further euro declines, with one-month risk reversals still trading not far from a record high in favor of bets on euro falls versus the dollar.
Traders cited semi-official buying of euro/dollar with speculative accounts targeting stops above Thursday’s peak of$1.3855 up to around $1.3870.
The euro has bounced from a three-week low of $1.3608 on Tuesday, struck after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s sudden call for a referendum sparked concerns the country could reject the bailout plans and instead default on its debt.
On Thursday Papandreou bowed to cabinet rebels and agreed to make way for a national coalition government with the opposition if his Socialists back him in a knife-edge confidence vote on Friday.
Euro rebounds as Greek chaos raises referendum doubts
LONDON (Reuters) – The euro rose in volatile trade on Thursday, reversing an earlier fall as political chaos in Greece called into doubt a planned referendum which had been seen threatening a disorderly default and exit from the single currency.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou spooked markets this week by calling for a referendum on a new rescue package but with the government on the brink of collapse, doubt over whether the vote would take place saw the euro rebound.
For some speculators, any cancellation of the referendum lowered the chances of Greece running out of cash in December and leaving the single currency — seen by many as the worst- case scenario for financial markets.
The euro was up 0.3 percent at $1.3789, off a low of $1.3656, with traders citing buying to close out earlier bets that the euro would fall. It benefited from short covering after some Middle Eeast investors were buying at lower levels.
“It may be the case that the government falls and it looks like the elections are going to result in a coalition and potentially a deal with the troika. We could then see ourselves all the way back up at $1.40 again — but it’s still a sell on rallies,” said Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider Foreign Exchange.
France and Germany made it clear at a meeting of G20 leaders that Greece must decide urgently if it wants to remain in the euro zone, prompting investors to sell into a bounce.
“Depending on whether there is a referendum or not, I would not be surprised to see the euro trade down to $1.33/$1.34 area in the next two to three weeks,” said Jeremy Stretch, currency strategist at CIBC.
Sterling up vs dollar, remains vulnerable to EZ turmoil
LONDON, Nov 2 (Reuters) – Sterling climbed against the dollar on Wednesday, recovering some of the previous day’s losses as the rally in safe-haven assets waned, although gains looked likely to be capped and the pound underperformed the euro.
Sterling clawed back 0.3 percent on the U.S. dollar after losing 0.8 percent on Tuesday when investors scrambled for the relative safety of dollars after Greece’s decision to hold a referendum on its EU bailout.
Cable last stood at $1.5984, having earlier hit a session high of $1.6048 when above-forecast UK data pushed sterling above the 100-day moving average and triggered stops.
UK construction purchasing managers’ index data for October rose to 53.9 from 50.1 in September, confounding expectations for a marginal decline.
However, the 200-day moving average at $1.6141 and the Oct. 31 high of $1.6167 were unlikely to face a serious test given investors were still broadly anxious over the euro zone crisis. Traders cited decent selling by corporates above $1.60.
“We are seeing what can be considered better sentiment today because we just fell so much yesterday. There’s some position squaring but I think things could still turn far worse over the coming days,” said John Hydeskov, chief analyst at Danske Bank.
“The risks to cable are skewed to the downside given the difficult market conditions in Europe.”
Sterling gains ground on dollar, but lags euro
LONDON, Nov 2 (Reuters) – Sterling firmed against the dollar on Wednesday, recovering some of the previous day’s losses as the rally in safe-haven assets waned, although gains were likely to be capped and it underperformed the euro.
Sterling clawed back 0.3 percent on the U.S. dollar after losing 0.8 percent on Tuesday when investors scrambled for the relative safety of dollars after Greece’s decision to hold a referendum on its EU bailout.
Cable last stood at $1.5990, having earlier hit a session high of $1.6048 when above-forecast UK data pushed sterling above the 100-day moving average and triggered stops.
UK construction purchasing managers’ index data for October rose to 53.9 from 50.1 in September, confounding expectations for a marginal decline.
However, the 200-day moving average at $1.6141 or the Oct. 31 high of $1.6167 were unlikely to face a serious test given investors were still broadly anxious over the euro zone crisis. Traders cited decent selling by corporates above $1.60.
“For sterling the machinations with respect to the euro crisis remain the dominant driver… perhaps this morning there’s a slightly more benign view of what’s going on in Greece,” said Michael Derks, chief strategist at FXPro.
The euro recovered from the previous day’s losses, rising 0.3 percent against the pound to 86.12 pence, having hit a one-month low in the previous session. Traders said a European national central bank was seen buying the euro and selling sterling for commercial requirements.
Sterling outperforms weak euro, falls vs dlr
LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) – Sterling hit a one-month high against the euro on Monday after Greece’s decision to hold a referendum on an EU bailout stoked concerns that the debt crisis was escalating and drove speculators to cut positions.
The risk-averse sentiment in markets pushed investors towards the relative safety of the U.S. dollar which outperformed sterling, pushing the British pound to $1.5889, its lowest since Oct. 21. It was heading for its biggest single day loss since early October.
The prospect of a swift end to the euro zone’s debt crisis shrank after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called a referendum on the latest bailout package, drawing calls from within his own party to step down.
The euro fell against sterling , hitting the lowest since Oct. 4, leaving September’s low of 85.31 pence as the nearest support. A break below this level would take the euro to its lowest since March.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw the September low broken, and then we have the psychologically important level of 85 (pence) to target,” said Audrey Childe-Freeman, EMEA head of currency strategy at JP Morgan private bank.
“The uncertainty as to whether there will be a (Greek) referendum or not is leaving the euro highly vulnerable.”
Short-term momentum indicators like slow Stochastic and Moving Average Converage-Divergence charts indicate the euro’s sell-off against sterling could have further to run.
Sterling hits 2-mth high vs yen, but off peaks vs dollar
LONDON, Oct 31 (Reuters) – Sterling rose to its highest in two months against the yen on Monday and was on track for its biggest daily gain in more than seven months after Japanese authorities intervened to drive the yen lower.
The dollar’s gains post-intervention left sterling under pressure against the greenback, but it gained more than 1 percent to a three-week high against a broadly weaker euro.
“Sterling is being driven by external factors — investor perception about the dollar and the euro and the intervention by the Japanese has pushed the dollar higher, keeping cable under pressure,” said Michael Derks, chief strategist, at FxPro. “But I would expect to see a fair bit of support around the $1.60 area.”
Sterling was down 0.25 percent on the day at $1.6145 versus the dollar and well below a seven-week peak of $1.6153 hit on Friday.
Still, the pound was on track for its best monthly performance against the dollar since April, trading just above its 200-day moving average which comes in at around $1.6140.
Against the yen, sterling spiked to as high as around 127.26 yen, its highest since Aug. 22, before trimming some of those gains to trade at 125.90 yen. It tracked gains made in dollar/yen which jumped nearly 5 percent to a three-month high of 79.55 yen .
The euro lagged sterling, dropping more than 1.5 percent to a three-week low of 86.415 pence . Euro/sterling extended losses after stop-loss orders were triggered on the break of 86.70 pence to reach its lowest since Oct. 10.
Sterling hits 2-mth high vs yen, but off peaks vs dollar
LONDON, Oct 31 (Reuters) – Sterling rose to its highest in two months against the yen on Monday and was on track for its biggest daily gain in more than seven months after Japanese authorities intervened to drive the yen lower.
The dollar’s gains post-intervention left sterling under pressure against the greenback, but it gained more than 1 percent to a three-week high against a broadly weaker euro.
“Sterling is being driven by external factors — investor perception about the dollar and the euro and the intervention by the Japanese has pushed the dollar higher, keeping cable under pressure,” said Michael Derks, chief strategist, at FxPro. “But I would expect to see a fair bit of support around the $1.60 area.”
Sterling was down 0.25 percent on the day at $1.6145 versus the dollar and well below a seven-week peak of $1.6153 hit on Friday.
Still, the pound was on track for its best monthly performance against the dollar since April, trading just above its 200-day moving average which comes in at around $1.6140.
Against the yen, sterling spiked to as high as around 127.26 yen, its highest since Aug. 22, before trimming some of those gains to trade at 125.90 yen. It tracked gains made in dollar/yen which jumped nearly 5 percent to a three-month high of 79.55 yen .
The euro lagged sterling, dropping more than 1.5 percent to a three-week low of 86.415 pence . Euro/sterling extended losses after stop-loss orders were triggered on the break of 86.70 pence to reach its lowest since Oct. 10.
Sterling firm vs yen, but off peaks vs dollar
LONDON, Oct 31 (Reuters) – Sterling rose to its highest in two months against the yen on Monday and was on track for its biggest daily gain in more than seven months after Japanese authorities intervened to drive their currency lower.
The dollar’s gains post-intervention left sterling under pressure against the greenback, although it managed to eke out gains against the euro.
“Sterling is being driven by external factors — investor perception about the dollar and the euro and the intervention by the Japanese has pushed the dollar higher, keeping cable under pressure,” said Michael Derks, chief strategist, at FxPro. “But I would expect to see a fair bit of support around the $1.60 area.”
Sterling was down 0.4 percent on the day at $1.6050 versus the dollar and well below at seven-week peak of $1.6153 hit on Friday.
Still, the pound was on track for its best monthly performance against the dollar since April and some analysts said near-term resistance lay around its 200-day moving average which comes in at around $1.6140.
Against the yen, sterling spiked to as high as 127.26 yen, its highest since Aug 22, before trimming some of those gains to trade at 125.13 with traders citing stops below 123.90. It tracked gains made in dollar/yen which jumped nearly 5 percent to a three-month high of 79.55 yen .
The euro was also up against the yen rising more than 2 percent to trade at 109.55 yen, having risen to its highest since late August.
US commercial paper market grows on the week
NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) – The U.S. commercial paper market grew in the latest week, Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday.
The size of the U.S. commercial paper market grew $11.8 billion to $961.1 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ended Oct. 26 from a seasonally adjusted $949.3 billion outstanding a week earlier.
The size of the market without seasonal adjustments expanded by $8.7 billion in the latest week to $1.037 trillion from $1.028 trillion.
U.S. unadjusted foreign financial commercial paper outstanding grew $3.9 billion in the latest week to $193.3 billion from $189.4 billion.
Separately, plans to recapitalize banks in the European Union did little to cut the cost of unsecured borrowing between institutions on Thursday, with any loosening of conditions seen tied to medium-term progress toward shoring up the financial sector.
As part of a package to tackle the euro zone debt crisis, banks will get around 106 billion euros in fresh capital to help accommodate losses on sovereign debt issued by the region’s struggling peripheral states.
Though equities and other riskier assets rallied on news of the package, benchmark rates for borrowing between banks showed little movement, rising in line with the recent trend, while measures of counterparty risk eased only slightly.
Bank plans positive but money mkts slow to heal
LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) – Plans to recapitalise Europe’s banks did little to cut the cost of unsecured borrowing between institutions on Thursday, with any loosening of conditions seen tied to medium-term progress towards shoring up the financial sector.
As part of a package of measure to tackle the euro zone debt crisis, banks will get around 106 billion euros in fresh capital to help accommodate losses on sovereign debt issued by the region’s struggling peripheral states.
But while equities and other riskier assets rallied on news of the package, benchmark rates for borrowing between banks showed little movement, rising in line with the recent trend, while measures of counterparty risk eased only slightly.
“There is essentially no change in the credit spreads between various European banks,” said Chris Clark, analyst at ICAP in London.
Shoring up the banking sector was the most widely anticipated component of the three-pronged deal announced early on Thursday by European leaders, which also covered private sector losses on Greek debt and plans to leverage the region’s rescue fund.
“Last night was widely expected, I think. The expectation was already being acted on by banks,” said Chris Huddleston, head of money markets at Investec in London.
Huddleston said some banks had been aggressively seeking longer-term funding in markets since September, helping to push interbank rates higher.
